Fri, 4 August 2017
At some time or other, every asset class has been in a bubble. Whether it's the dot-com bubble of the 90s or the housing bubble in the 2000s, booms and busts are commonplace at this point. When they happen you have to make sure you're diversified and prepared for the downturn.
But what happens if it's not just one asset class? What if the bubble is...everything?
Mish Shedlock, economist and investment advisor at SitkaPacific Capital Management, talks with Jason about just this phenomenon, and provides some thoughts on ways you can protect yourself in the middle of this everything bubble.
[2:57] Mish's Rule of Progress
[10:13] The Shiller P/E Ratio Chart and what it says about the market today
[11:58] The Buffett Indicator
[15:53] The Mish Shedlock investing thoughts for right now
[19:31] How asset inflation is leaving investors behind
[23:57] Some real estate price examples on the East coast that show the dangerous bubble we're probably in, and how policies are set up to aid the rich in their wealth creation
Fri, 28 July 2017
New lending rules means new investment strategies for real estate investors. That's why it's important to keep up with what Fannie Mae is doing with loans. Jason calls in one of his lenders to find out what's changed recently and how that will effect what you're buying, and how you're buying properties.
[1:45] Your first 10 properties can be purchased with only 20% down
[3:58] Rising interest rates mean you should lock in your rate sooner rather than later
[8:52] 85-90 days in the maximum time to lock in a rate.
[10:23] What loan level price adjustments to rate means
[12:37] The Trump administration may replace the head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
[17:30] The ease or difficulty of qualifying for a loan.
Fri, 21 July 2017
Single-family homes sales rose in January. This has made income property inventory low. Jason shares a live recording from a previous seminar in which he thoroughly explains why investing in a single family home as income property is the only logical investment during an inflationary period. And, if the signs are correct the U.S is entering an inflationary period under the Trump administration.
[0:44] Inflation induced debt destruction by way of a mortgage.
[2:51] Jason explains how the government manipulates inflation numbers through hedonic adjustment.
[10:19] The ultimate investing equation.
[17:38] Anything that does not produce income is not an investment.
[19:29] Cash and bonds are destroyed by inflation.
[21:31] The IRS does not account for inflation.
[24:45] During deflationary periods people default on their loans.
[27:08] If you have a corporate job you are paying more taxes than the self-employed.
Sat, 15 July 2017
Bubbles abound in the world of investing, and today is no different. Jason welcomes Harry Dent, author of The Sale of a Lifetime, about what's going on today in the stock market, real estate market, political world, and worldwide economic statuses. Harry points out what nation in Europe that reminds him of Japan before their massive downturn, and gives Jason a rundown of what to look for BEFORE you see a bubble burst.
The two look at what you might actually want to be investing in when the bubble bursts.
[4:42] The massive bubble that is Chinese real estate
[12:46] Why Harry studies 80-250 year cycles when the world is rapidly changing today
[15:31] Examining the Trump rally
[24:02] Why Jason hates the Case Shiller Index
[28:14] The phases of a housing crash
Fri, 7 July 2017
AMA 180 - Why Knowing Things Still Matters When Facts Are So Easy to Look Up with William Poundstone
For this 10th Episode, Jason goes off topic and welcomes William Poundstone, author of the new book, Head in the Cloud: Why Knowing Things Still Matters When Facts are So Easy to Look Up. Mr. Poundstone is also the author of the New York Times best-selling books, Fortune’s Formula: The Untold Story of Scientific Betting System that Beat the Casinos and Wall Street, Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value and How to Take Advantage of It and Gaming the Vote: Why Elections Aren’t Fair and What We Can Do About it.
[1:12] William explains the premise of his latest book, Head in the Cloud.
[5:03] Having a general knowledge of baseline facts and the Dunning-Kruger effect have humbling assets.
[7:28] The larger a person’s vocabulary is akin to their ability to think.
[11:12] How does America stack up on the map of ignorance?
[13:43] Americans will vote for judges with less ethnic sounding names if they don’t know the candidates.
[19:51] The Kelly Formula informs a user of the optimal amount you should be putting on each bet or investment.
Fri, 30 June 2017
Frances Donald, Senior Economist at Manulife Asset Management and Chief Economist at John Hancock Financial Services, explains to Jason the changes in consumer, investor, and executive sentiment numbers in the home and job market. While we don't know exactly why the economic is experiencing such a resurgence, Frances does attribute at least some of it to the potential policy changes Trump is looking to bring.
Frances and Jason also discuss pent up real estate demand, and how student loan debt is impacting that.
[0:57] Investor sentiment gives a positive outlook for the US economy
[3:39] Is Trump the cause of the economic forecast?
[4:56] Rising interest rates present a challenge for the housing market
[7:57] Trump is inspiring confidence in companies all across the country
[9:38] Real estate investment is a small part of the total economy
[14:30] There are two true drivers of rental housing
[16:47] The housing and rental markets are not currently in their natural order
[20:26] The importance of demographics in relation to wage growth
There are fewer multipliers to growth from a rental market than there are from a housing market.
Fri, 23 June 2017
Jason Hartman talks with James Dale Davidson, co-founder of Agora Publishing, Founder of the National Taxpayer’s Union, co-editor of Strategic Investment for the Sovereign Society, and founder of Newsmax. James has just written his newest book, The Breaking Point: Profit from the Coming Money Cataclysm. James believes that, in his lifetime, we are likely to see a massive marketplace disaster compliments of Obamacare, Chinese ghost towns, printing money, and other bad economic decisions.
[1:20] The Western Civilization has a new business model and social contract
[5:57] Some of Trump's support came because middle class white voters are experiencing a decline in their life expectancy
[9:13] What does the US economy look like under a Trump presidency?
[10:27] James' latest book, The Breaking Point, examines the relationship between drug companies and the food industry.
[14:19] Some business savvy for our politicians would help them out a lot
[18:00] Bernie Sanders and Karl Marx share some similarities
[20:02] Fake capital lets people borrow money practically for free
[27:26] We can't keep passing the buck down generation after generation
[31:22] Chinese ghost towns used more cement in a dozen years than our entire country did in the 20th century
[37:27] Chile has provided most of the copper used by the Chinese
[40:48] We are staring into the face of the biggest economic crisis in history
Fri, 16 June 2017
The housing market is always on a pendulum, but where are we now? Self driving cars are going to be changing the dynamics of our society, but are they going to push more people into the city or have more people moving to the suburbs? Jason Hartman and Matt Slepin, President of Terra Search Partners, discuss what is going on in real estate today, and how our changing environment is impacting real estate in the future.
[2:36] Where Matt thinks we are in the business cycle, and whether we've overbuilt apartments
[6:49] The issues going on in the retail and office investment markets, and why apartment investing makes more sense these days
[11:13] The rise of the autonomous vehicles and how they will change the real estate demand equation
[15:29] What does Urban Land Institute do and what issues are being discussed?
[19:22] What Matt has learned in his real estate podcast
[22:51] Two conflicting trends in property management
Fri, 9 June 2017
AMA 176 - Too Big to Save: How to Fix the U.S. Financial System, with MIT's Sloan School of Management's Bob Pozen
The Trump administration will bring changes to the real estate market. Legislation and regulation changes could help small and medium size banks while also increasing the amount of lending done by the biggest banks. Jason Hartman talks with Bob Pozen, Senior Lecturer at MIT's Sloan School of Management and former Associate General Counsel for the SEC, about these things, and what is realistic to expect under President Trump. Bob is author of Extreme Productivity and Too Big to Save.
[2:11] Legislation that may be changed through banking system while Dodd-Frank is left as is.
[5:50] Small and medium sized banks need regulation relief
[7:33] Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are having problems because they were never made public or private
[11:13] FHA and VA insure all mortgages made by banks
[11:55] Real estate prices will rise as money flows into the market
[14:46] Rising rates will bring a temporary increase in home purchases, but will level off soon thereafter
[15:28] Pozen was chosen by President Bush to join a bipartisan commission to strengthen Social Security.
[17:00] Security and Exchange Commission has constraints regarding employees working for corporations after their service.
[19:22] Getting to the gist of Bob Pozen’s book Too Big to Fix.
[21:59] Peer-to-Peer lending is pretty much unregulated.
[23:38] As the economy strengthens banks should lend more.
Fri, 2 June 2017
Doug Casey is a (successful) speculator, a libertarian philosopher, and a best-selling author. He has a reputation for his sometimes controversial insights into politics, economics, and investments. His speculation is often called "rational speculation", and he's one of the authorities on the matter, and is highly regarded in the high-potential natural resource sector.
Doug's new book, Speculator, is a venture into fiction, a departure for him. Jason Hartman and Doug discuss the new book, how to be an international man today, and real estate all over the world.
[1:45] A quick rundown of Doug's new book Speculator
[4:40] Speculator is the first in a series, and has some main topics that Doug explores.
[8:35] Doug's book International Man made him semi-famous and is the most sold book in Rhodesian history
[12:30] The world's move toward the singularity
[15:50] The scam that is college education and tuition
[20:20] Diversifying yourself internationally
[24:20] Is the world flat now?
[29:00] We're at the beginning of the next crash while riding the tail of the previous crash