Fri, 7 July 2017
AMA 180 - Why Knowing Things Still Matters When Facts Are So Easy to Look Up with William Poundstone
For this 10th Episode, Jason goes off topic and welcomes William Poundstone, author of the new book, Head in the Cloud: Why Knowing Things Still Matters When Facts are So Easy to Look Up. Mr. Poundstone is also the author of the New York Times best-selling books, Fortune’s Formula: The Untold Story of Scientific Betting System that Beat the Casinos and Wall Street, Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value and How to Take Advantage of It and Gaming the Vote: Why Elections Aren’t Fair and What We Can Do About it.
[1:12] William explains the premise of his latest book, Head in the Cloud.
[5:03] Having a general knowledge of baseline facts and the Dunning-Kruger effect have humbling assets.
[7:28] The larger a person’s vocabulary is akin to their ability to think.
[11:12] How does America stack up on the map of ignorance?
[13:43] Americans will vote for judges with less ethnic sounding names if they don’t know the candidates.
[19:51] The Kelly Formula informs a user of the optimal amount you should be putting on each bet or investment.
Fri, 30 June 2017
Frances Donald, Senior Economist at Manulife Asset Management and Chief Economist at John Hancock Financial Services, explains to Jason the changes in consumer, investor, and executive sentiment numbers in the home and job market. While we don't know exactly why the economic is experiencing such a resurgence, Frances does attribute at least some of it to the potential policy changes Trump is looking to bring.
Frances and Jason also discuss pent up real estate demand, and how student loan debt is impacting that.
[0:57] Investor sentiment gives a positive outlook for the US economy
[3:39] Is Trump the cause of the economic forecast?
[4:56] Rising interest rates present a challenge for the housing market
[7:57] Trump is inspiring confidence in companies all across the country
[9:38] Real estate investment is a small part of the total economy
[14:30] There are two true drivers of rental housing
[16:47] The housing and rental markets are not currently in their natural order
[20:26] The importance of demographics in relation to wage growth
There are fewer multipliers to growth from a rental market than there are from a housing market.
Fri, 23 June 2017
Jason Hartman talks with James Dale Davidson, co-founder of Agora Publishing, Founder of the National Taxpayer’s Union, co-editor of Strategic Investment for the Sovereign Society, and founder of Newsmax. James has just written his newest book, The Breaking Point: Profit from the Coming Money Cataclysm. James believes that, in his lifetime, we are likely to see a massive marketplace disaster compliments of Obamacare, Chinese ghost towns, printing money, and other bad economic decisions.
[1:20] The Western Civilization has a new business model and social contract
[5:57] Some of Trump's support came because middle class white voters are experiencing a decline in their life expectancy
[9:13] What does the US economy look like under a Trump presidency?
[10:27] James' latest book, The Breaking Point, examines the relationship between drug companies and the food industry.
[14:19] Some business savvy for our politicians would help them out a lot
[18:00] Bernie Sanders and Karl Marx share some similarities
[20:02] Fake capital lets people borrow money practically for free
[27:26] We can't keep passing the buck down generation after generation
[31:22] Chinese ghost towns used more cement in a dozen years than our entire country did in the 20th century
[37:27] Chile has provided most of the copper used by the Chinese
[40:48] We are staring into the face of the biggest economic crisis in history
Fri, 16 June 2017
The housing market is always on a pendulum, but where are we now? Self driving cars are going to be changing the dynamics of our society, but are they going to push more people into the city or have more people moving to the suburbs? Jason Hartman and Matt Slepin, President of Terra Search Partners, discuss what is going on in real estate today, and how our changing environment is impacting real estate in the future.
[2:36] Where Matt thinks we are in the business cycle, and whether we've overbuilt apartments
[6:49] The issues going on in the retail and office investment markets, and why apartment investing makes more sense these days
[11:13] The rise of the autonomous vehicles and how they will change the real estate demand equation
[15:29] What does Urban Land Institute do and what issues are being discussed?
[19:22] What Matt has learned in his real estate podcast
[22:51] Two conflicting trends in property management
Fri, 9 June 2017
AMA 176 - Too Big to Save: How to Fix the U.S. Financial System, with MIT's Sloan School of Management's Bob Pozen
The Trump administration will bring changes to the real estate market. Legislation and regulation changes could help small and medium size banks while also increasing the amount of lending done by the biggest banks. Jason Hartman talks with Bob Pozen, Senior Lecturer at MIT's Sloan School of Management and former Associate General Counsel for the SEC, about these things, and what is realistic to expect under President Trump. Bob is author of Extreme Productivity and Too Big to Save.
[2:11] Legislation that may be changed through banking system while Dodd-Frank is left as is.
[5:50] Small and medium sized banks need regulation relief
[7:33] Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are having problems because they were never made public or private
[11:13] FHA and VA insure all mortgages made by banks
[11:55] Real estate prices will rise as money flows into the market
[14:46] Rising rates will bring a temporary increase in home purchases, but will level off soon thereafter
[15:28] Pozen was chosen by President Bush to join a bipartisan commission to strengthen Social Security.
[17:00] Security and Exchange Commission has constraints regarding employees working for corporations after their service.
[19:22] Getting to the gist of Bob Pozen’s book Too Big to Fix.
[21:59] Peer-to-Peer lending is pretty much unregulated.
[23:38] As the economy strengthens banks should lend more.
Fri, 2 June 2017
Doug Casey is a (successful) speculator, a libertarian philosopher, and a best-selling author. He has a reputation for his sometimes controversial insights into politics, economics, and investments. His speculation is often called "rational speculation", and he's one of the authorities on the matter, and is highly regarded in the high-potential natural resource sector.
Doug's new book, Speculator, is a venture into fiction, a departure for him. Jason Hartman and Doug discuss the new book, how to be an international man today, and real estate all over the world.
[1:45] A quick rundown of Doug's new book Speculator
[4:40] Speculator is the first in a series, and has some main topics that Doug explores.
[8:35] Doug's book International Man made him semi-famous and is the most sold book in Rhodesian history
[12:30] The world's move toward the singularity
[15:50] The scam that is college education and tuition
[20:20] Diversifying yourself internationally
[24:20] Is the world flat now?
[29:00] We're at the beginning of the next crash while riding the tail of the previous crash
Fri, 26 May 2017
It might look like a children's book, but Goodnight Obama is more than just that. It's an important reminder that parody is critical in this day and age.
Dr Jerome Corsi is author of Goodnight Obama, and is also head of the Washington, DC News Bureau for Alex Jones and Infowars.com. The two discuss his newest book, as well as what Jerome is expecting out of President Trump, and where we are in the business cycle.
[1:10] The idea behind Jerome's Goodnight Obama book
[6:41] Whether people who didn't vote for Trump are going to be pleasantly surprised when they realize what he's doing in office
[17:30] What Trump means when he talks about "infrastructure spending" isn't what most liberals think
[21:46] According to the idea of business cycles we're due for a recession. Is it going to hit Trump, will he avoid it, or is the idea of a business cycle outdated?
[24:23] The USA return to a carbon based economy
Fri, 19 May 2017
Tevi Troy, President of American Health Policy Institute and former Deputy Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services, joins Jason Hartman to discuss his newest book Shall We Wake the President?: Two Centuries of Disaster Management from the Oval Office.
The two take a look into the history of American presidents handling of disasters, as well as trying to look at our current president, Donald Trump, to see if there are any signs as to how he might handle a disaster. Jason also probes the former Deputy Secretary about how the Republicans might actually be able to craft a replacement for Obamacare that the Democrats might actually support, and that would actually improve our system.
[1:07] The best and worst presidents at handling disasters
[4:43] How Tevi thinks Donald Trump will handle disasters
[7:20] The newness of Trump's cabinet to politics could create a problem if there's an early disaster during his presidency
[10:29] How pop culture impacts presidents
[13:05] Tevi outlines a path that he believes Republicans should take to get a new healthcare bill passed
[16:10] How Trump's participation in pop culture might play a role in his presidency
Fri, 12 May 2017
Just before the election, Jason Hartman talked with Bill Ayers, a retired Professor of Education, contributor to academic journals, and an original member of the Weather Underground. Bill has written several books, including his newest, Demand the Impossible! A Radical Manifesto. Jason and Bill discuss eight major points from his book, and look into what the US can do to right itself.
[1:28] Demand the Impossible calls for Americans to release their imaginations and consider the impossible.
[3:51] The eight issues addressed in Bill Ayers’ Demand the Impossible! A Radical Manifesto.
[5:06] Privatized prisons are destroying America. The US has 20% of the prisoners in the entire world.
[6:50] What does public safety look like for free people in a democratic society?
[9:09] You can't label Bill has a tax and spend liberal
[12:28] The US needs a massive education reform
[21:14] Democratic and the Republican parties agree on war and Wall Street, but little else.
Fri, 5 May 2017
The market is moving and it seems to be moving in the right direction for real estate investors. The historical average for appreciation for single family homes is ~6% nationwide. If you are already an income property investor, the good news is rents may be pushing upward. Jason’s guest today is the author of the new book, Global Shocks: An Investment Guide for Turbulent Markets. Nick Sargen is Senior VP and Chief Economist at Fort Washington Investment Advisors. He is a former economist at Morgan Guaranty trust, Salomon Brothers, Prudential Insurance and JP Morgan. He shares his insights about how the markets will react to a Trump presidency.
[1:05] President-elect Trump may lead the US with a pro-business stance.
[4:33] Trump is a spender which could lead to higher interest rates.
[5:45] Nick Sargen worries about Trump’s trade issue.
[9:41] Budget deficits do not mean inflation.
[12:08] Trump will be a pro-growth, real estate president.
[15:00] The market is moving with the belief that all of Trump’s policies will promote growth.
[17:50] Diving into the Global Shocks: An Investment Guide to Turbulent Markets book.
[20:24] How to capitalize on a bubble.
[24:08] Financial institutions have led the way during the current stock market rally.